As the clock winds down on President Trump’s first 100 days in office, his second-term honeymoon is officially over. And while other smart folks have compared Trump 2.0’s use of executive orders, his win/loss record in the courts, and his historically low approval ratings to his predecessors, today I’ve zeroed in on the thing that really matters to the president himself: the stock market.
Specifically, let’s look at that very overhyped political benchmark—the First 100 Days—through the lens of the S&P 500.
First, a history lesson: The “First 100 Days” wasn’t always a thing. In fact, no one really cared about the early part of a president’s term until Franklin D. Roosevelt came crashing in during the Great Depression. He moved quickly—signing 15 major pieces of legislation, calming the banking system, and hosting the first episodes of the original podcast, his infamous fireside chats. It was a flurry of activity and reassurance at a moment of national panic. And it worked.
Markets soared. Voters approved. And just like that, the 100-day mark became our political first impression test. Every president since has been (unfairly) measured by the arbitrary measuring stick.
Which brings us to today.
How does Trump stack up on the stock market front? Not so hotsy. The S&P 500 fell 8.13% during the first 100 days in Trump’s return to the White House—the worst performance in a president’s first 100 days since Gerald Ford’s inflation-shocked debut in 1974 (-11.4%).
For my visual folks, use the handy-dandy short video at the top showing how each president’s market honeymoon went. It’s worth the watch. 📽️
Here are the big takeaways:
📈 FDR is still the king 👑
No president has ever matched the wave of market optimism that greeted Franklin Roosevelt. A staggering +52.86% gain in his first 100 days—still the gold standard. To be fair, he had a tailwind: a collapsing economy desperate for leadership and reform.
🎢 Democrats have (generally) outperformed
Democratic presidents have generally seen stronger early market reactions:
JFK: +8.9%
Biden: +9.56%
Truman: +4.4%
On the other side of the aisle, Republican presidents have both soared and slumped:
George H. W. Bush: +7.93%
George W. Bush: -6.93%
Trump 1.0: +5.03%
Eisenhower: -5.81%
🔁 The sequel rarely outshines the original
Trump’s two 100-day scores tell a story. Markets were cautiously optimistic the first time around. This time, not so much. Whether it’s tariff uncertainty, leadership style, or looming fights over debt and spending, investors seem less impressed with Act II.
So, does the 100-day market performance really matter?
Not really—but it’s revealing. Markets aren’t voting machines, but they are mood rings. They reflect confidence (or fear) about future growth, policy clarity, and economic stability.
And if the first 100 days are a test of tone and trust? Well, investors just handed Trump a report card he would rather keep hidden in his backpack.
🎥 Watch the full video to see how each president’s market moment compares. The numbers might surprise you—and they certainly say more than the spin.
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